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Friday, October 16, 2026

Digital Finance Seminar Series - Theis Jensen

Organized by AI in Business Initiative
Time
1:30 PM –
3:00 PM EDT
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Description
Registration for this seminar will open on October 1, 2026. Eventbrite Link: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/digital-finance-seminar-series-theis-jensen-tickets-2001393637245?aff=oddtdtcreator Topic: Prediction Market Accuracy: Crowd Wisdom or Informed Minority? Abstract: Prediction markets produce remarkably accurate forecasts, but the source of this accuracy is poorly understood. Two explanations dominate: crowd wisdom and insider trading. Using the universe of Polymarket transactions, we show it is neither. Instead, accuracy comes from a minority of persistently skilled traders, around 3% of accounts. Unlike insiders, whose private edge is localized, these traders exhibit depth and breadth. They react to public news when it arrives, eliminate law-of-one-price violations, and trade against the crowd’s behavioral mistakes. The crowd, in turn, generates most of the volume but little of the information, and its losses fund the minority’s profits. About the Speaker: Theis Ingerslev Jensen is an Assistant Professor of Finance at Yale SOM since Fall 2023. Theis' primary research area is empirical asset pricing, where he likes to explore new data sets, especially those related to subjective expectations. His research projects are typically data-intensive and use advanced statistical methods such as machine learning. Theis grew up in Denmark where he obtained his Ph.D. in financial Economics from Copenhagen Business School in 2023. About the Series: The Center for Digital Finance and Technologies within the Columbia School of Engineering and Applied Science, together with The Briger Family Digital Finance Lab at the Columbia Business School, hosts the Columbia Digital Finance Seminar Series throughout the academic year (Fall and Spring Semesters). The seminars feature a broad variety of academics, professionals, and policy markers on topics related to digital assets, including but not limited to crypto tokens and securities, decentralized finance (DeFi), blockchain consensus protocols, regulation of digital platforms, and blockchain market design. The seminars are designed to expose students, faculty, and the broader community to the latest developments in the area of crypto and blockchain economics.
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